Stocks’ Road Ahead

The calendar had barely flipped to 2022 and investors were reminded that even attractive long-term stock returns come with a cost: volatility. The S&P 500 Index fell nearly 10% from January 3 through January 27 amid fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to get a lot more aggressive to fight inflation, before staging a 4% rally over the last two days of the month to end January down 5%. After such a steady march higher in 2021, the dip may have caught some investors off guard.

For those whose anxiety levels may have risen a bit last week, here are some numbers that may provide reassurance:

  • Even in positive years for the S&P 500, on average the index experiences a maximum peak-to-trough decline of 11%. This year’s max drawdown is now 9.8%.
  • After a correction of 10-15%, the index has experienced an average one-year gain off the lows of 22% and has risen in 12 of the 13 one-year periods.
  • The average stock market gain one year after the first Fed rate hike of an economic cycle has been 11%, with gains the past eight cycles dating back to 1983.
  • When investor sentiment is most negative, as it was during the past two weeks based on the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) investor sentiment survey, stocks have risen an average of 11% in the next year.

This data argues that stock investors should stay the course. But remember that gains in 2022 will likely be tougher to come by than in 2021. They may be more modest and happen later in the year, as is typical during midterm election years.

The good news is that an inflation peak may be near as the COVID-19 Omicron variant loses its punch. Slower, but still solid, economic growth this year will help cool inflation as Fed rate hikes take hold.  We’re already seeing backlogs and bottlenecks start to clear. We expect more people to jump back into the labor force later this year, easing wage pressures. We may also get some help from lower oil prices, though that may have to wait for Russia-Ukraine tensions to die down.

These uncertainties make the road ahead for stocks tougher. But with U.S. consumers and businesses in excellent shape, the U.S. economy may grow 4% this year, well above the pace of the last decade. Corporate America is showing once again during fourth quarter earnings season that it is thriving with S&P 500 earnings poised to increase by more than 25% year-over-year.

 

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Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of February 2, 2022.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

The Need For A Coach: Why Should Someone Hire A Financial Advisor?

The Harvard-Yale football rivalry began in 1875 and Harvard didn’t see the need to hire a coach. As a result, Harvard only won 4 games against Yale over the next 30 years.

In 1908 Harvard decided to hire its first dedicated football a coach. In the next 30 years’ worth of games against Yale, Harvard won 15, tied 3, and lost 11 (No games were held in 1917-1918).  Harvard has had a coach ever since.

For those who are serious about improving, a coach provides real value. A coach can see things you cannot either because of their experience, or because of their position as an objective 3rd party. Whether you are a novice or an expert, having a coach can accelerate your progress and help you reach goals.

Want to get great at something? Get a coach. -Dr. Atul Gawande 

There are sometimes negative misconceptions when it comes to paying for Financial Coaching. Stop me if you have heard this before: “Why would you pay someone for financial advice? A financial advisor’s fee just cuts into your return. It is simple, just buy some broad market ETFs, max out your contributions, and leave it alone.”

Where to start… first I will be agreeable. Yes! Saving for financial goals does not have to be complicated. While there are a lot of nuances to the words: advice, contributions, max out, and broad market ETF (that would be an Exchange Traded Fund), many savers and investors have had great success managing their own finances.

But just because investing can be done simply, doesn’t mean having a dedicated coach is worthless. After all, playing a football could be considered straightforward as well.

In my experience, when a person chooses to hire a financial advisor, they do so because they want to take their finances seriously. Not because they are incapable of “figuring it out” on their own, but because they want to be rigorous in their decisions and they value having a professional help them work towards goals. They recognize that by leveraging a professional, they can often make better decisions while also freeing up their time to focus on family, work, and hobbies.

Vanguard, the company famous for providing low-cost investing solutions, has publicly proclaimed the value in paying for investment advice.  In a 2019 study, Vanguard concluded that a financial advisor may add around 3% net return to a client portfolio. Nearly half of this value (1.5%) was attributed to the coaching an advisor can offer!

Does this mean you have to have a coach to be a successful investor? Of course not. Some people really enjoy self-directed learning and managing their own finances.  They find satisfaction in the DIY aspect of going at it alone. That is great. Some people like to remodel their own kitchen too, while others like to hire a contractor. Neither decision is right or wrong.

We provide our clients with coaching and advice that is tailored to their situation. We remind them that anytime they have a question, with a dollar sign attached to it, we encourage them to call us. Not because they are incapable of figuring it out on their own, but because we are their advisor and coach! Not only do we do this every day (all day too!), but we are a 3rd party with a different perspective. We are a sounding board.

 

And like any good coach, our biggest goal is to see our clients thrive!

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual 

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

The 4 “T’s” of finding a financial advisor

When searching for a financial advisor, we recommend you use a defined process to help you make an informed decision.

Since we are base in Tacoma, Washington (“T”acoma), here are the 4 ‘T’s” to finding the right advisor for you: 

Trust

Having trust in an advisor will not only give you peace of mind, but often the confidence needed to follow a financial plan. Trust is built as your advisor gets to know you and you learn about them. Here are a few ideas that will help start the trust building process

  • Identify 2-3 advisors to meet with. Meeting multiple advisors will allow you to compare personalities and styles. Taking the time to speak with more than one advisor is always worth it.
  • Try to speak in person or on a video conference. Seeing body language and mannerism can be informative.
  • Search for the advisor on www.brokercheck.finra.org. BrokerCheck is a free service and provides an advisor’s history as well as any formal disclosures.  
  • Learn about any potential advisor’s team. A good advisor will always make time to talk with you, but many of your interactions will with the office staff. Make sure the team supporting the advisor is top notch.      
  • Your advisor should be a fiduciary (legally obligated to act in your best interest). 

Teacher

When you ask a question, you should expect an advisor to give you a complete answer.  You should also sense that your advisor wants to help you understand. Acting as a good teacher will help you build trust (see the first point) and demonstrates that the advisor is competent and cares about your concerns.  

When searching for an advisor, ask questions. Evaluate not only what they say, but how they say it.

Transparent

Professionals need to get paid, and that is not a bad thing. But how an advisor gets paid is important. Different pay structures have pros and cons. Be sure to ask why the pay structure they are proposing is good for you (and not just them)!

Paying an advisor is only part of a client’s total cost. Many investments charge an additional fee. Be wary if an advisor makes more money for putting you in certain investments. Even if the advisor doesn’t receive additional money themselves, they should be able to justify why a certain investment is worth the cost you are paying.

It may be worth getting a second opinion on your investments if you are concerned you are overpaying.

Tactics

Different advisors will take different approaches to investing. Some will encourage choosing diversified mutual funds, while other will advocate buying and holding individual company stock. Some advisors prefer bonds, while others prefer insurance-based investing products. If you have a preference, find an advisor that lines up with your goals!

Along the same lines, some investors want to be really involved in the planning and execution, and other investors want an advisor to “just take care of it”. Neither approach is wrong, but make sure your expectation match that of the advisor. 

***You have lots of choices for where to get your financial advice. Ideally, the relationship you build with an advisor will be of benefit to you for years. Take your time in the search and find the fit that is right for you.***

Learn More About Kimball Creek Partners

Meet the team

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual 

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Many Reasons to Be Thankful

The past year and a half have tested all of us, but overall, the economy continues to strengthen, COVID-19 trends are greatly improving, and this still relatively young bull market is alive and well. As the leaves turn colors and begin to fall to the ground, there are many reasons to be thankful.

The economy slowed considerably in the third quarter (as the growth rate of gross domestic product [GDP] slowed to 2.0% from 6.7% in the second quarter), well below the 10% that was expected back in early June. The good news is—this likely isn’t the start of a new trend. The COVID-19 Delta variant slowed the economy considerably in the third quarter, but growth is expected to pick up in the next few quarters. Big purchases were likely pushed back a few months, which helps the growth outlook for the fourth quarter. Additionally, consumer balance sheets remain very healthy, with trillions of dollars in savings and money market accounts. The consumer, which makes up about two-thirds of the economy, is in very good shape heading into 2022.

Supply chain disruptions are being felt all across our country. Goods are taking longer to get to us and costing more than they did in the past. But over the past few weeks, we have seen some signs that the worst of the supply issues may be ending. Although these issues lasted longer than most expected, the bottlenecks will continue to work their way out of the system over the coming months and provide relief—something consumers are sure to appreciate.

Earnings drive long-term stock gains and continue to justify stocks at current levels. Third quarter S&P 500 Index earnings have been extremely strong once again, with more than 80% of companies beating estimates (FactSet) and earnings up nearly 40% from 2020 levels. Yes, many companies have been impacted by the recent COVID-19 Delta variant-induced economic slowdown and supply chain problems, but corporate America remains quite optimistic about the future.

The strong stock market performance this year is yet another thing to be thankful for. In fact, November has been historically the best month of the year for stocks, with the usually strong December right after that. Although some of the late seasonal gains could have been pulled forward by the 6% gain in October, the bull market is alive and well.

The loss of so many lives to COVID-19 is a tragedy beyond comprehension, but some recent trends show light at the end of the tunnel. Approved booster shots and vaccines for children will continue to help the economy reopen. Additionally, hospitalizations are down by more than half from their September peak, suggesting we are over the worst from the Delta worries. Another reason to be thankful indeed.

These last two months will go by quickly, as this time of year is always busy—and that’s a good thing because it means we are getting closer to normal. We’ve come a long way since early 2020 when COVID-19 first arrived on U.S. shores, so let’s not forget to take some time to remember how lucky we all are.

Please contact us if you have any questions.

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Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of November 1, 2021.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Your Kimball Creek Partner Team is Growing!

 

We are pleased to announce Erica Bearer has joined the Kimball Creek Partners team as our office manager.

Erica is a veteran in financial services, having previously worked for another wealth management firm. In addition, Erica has held administrative positions in the health care and recycling industries.  A native of Washington, Erica lives in Spanaway with her husband and two boys. She is an active member of the PTA, serves as a Sunday School Teacher, and enjoys home improvement projects.

We feel fortunate to bring on an experienced professional like Erica. Her expertise in handling office duties will allow Dean and Brock more time to focus on the most important part of Kimball Creek Partners: You

As we begin to wind down 2021 and look forward to 2022, we are focused on achieving excellence for you in both service and performance. To help meet these goals, Brock has moved over to an advisor role and directly assists Dean in building financial strategies.

The current and future growth of Kimball Creek Partners is designed to strengthen your team so we can provide excellent services for decades to come. If you are wondering, Dean has NO plans to retire (he enjoys his job too much).

In 2022 we look forward to having more conversations about what matters most to you, and how your financial strategy can support those priorities. Thank you for you support and business.

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Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice and financial planning offered through Financial Advocates Investment Management, DBA Kimball Creek Partners, a registered investment advisor. Financial Advocates Investment Management, Kimball Creek Partners and LPL Financial are separate entities.

4 questions to ask your CPA now that your taxes are done

In the world of sports, games are won and lost on the practice field. We do not think it is a stretch to say that the same is true for taxes. It is about preparation.

Now that tax season is over, and before you shelve your tax return for the next 9 months, we suggest you do a little work to prepare yourself financially for this year.

Here are 4 questions you should ask your CPA now that tax season is over.

  • What is my adjusted gross income and marginal tax rate?
  • Do I have any remaining loss carry forwards?
  • Am I eligible for a ROTH IRA conversion?
  • Am I effectively utilizing charitable giving to reduce my taxes?

Tax season is a time of reflection. A rear-facing view (or accounting) of where you have been and what you have done financially.

To take control of your finances, you need to look forward. That is where financial planning comes in.

We are not tax professional, and we can’t do your taxes for you. But when you get the answers to these questions, we are  happy to have a conversation about financial planning strategies.

2021 Opens With Optimism

Dear Valued Investor,

“In the short-term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long-term, the market is a weighing machine.” Warren Buffett

2021 is under way, as our nation and the rest of the world look to begin to put the global pandemic behind us. The path forward for the US economy, as well as that of the global economy, will continue to depend heavily on the success of combatting the virus.

While many of the risks presented by the outbreak of COVID-19 persist, it appears we may be in the later innings of the pandemic. Following increased restrictions to quell the holiday surge, new daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have peaked, and are down significantly the past few weeks (source: COVID Tracking Project). Reopening is taking place as well, highlighted by New York City’s plans to bring back indoor dining by Valentine’s Day. Meanwhile, the distribution of currently approved vaccines is well underway—and accelerating. The United States has added over 1 million shots per day over the past week (source: CDC) and 1.5 million per day is quite possible soon. Adding to this optimistic trend, new vaccine candidates from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax have also shown efficacy in combatting the effects of the virus and new mutations. If these two candidates are authorized for use as most experts expect, the boost in supply will be a welcome development in the US and abroad.

Despite the positive trends in COVID-19 data, volatility began to return to the stock market in the final days of January, as retail traders set their eyes on GameStop (GME) stock and other heavily shorted securities, captivating the nation’s imagination. As Warren Buffett explained above, while many of these securities may be popular now, the real winners will likely be investors with longer-term horizons. While these developments could be another sign of excessive optimism in certain segments of the equity markets, we do not believe they represent a sign of a broader market bubble or indicate a major correction is forthcoming.

After the powerful snapback of economic growth seen in the third quarter, the economy continued to grow at a solid 4% in the fourth quarter despite the holiday surge in COVID-19 cases. This improving economic backdrop has provided tailwinds to corporate profits, which should help stocks grow into their elevated valuations. S&P 500 Index earnings for the fourth quarter are impressively tracking 9 percentage points ahead of consensus expectations, while more than 80% of companies have beaten earnings estimates (source: FactSet). Meanwhile, housing remains extremely strong nationally and manufacturing data continues to show an economy that is firmly on the mend.

The improving economic backdrop, along with US government and Federal Reserve policies designed to boost the economy, suggest the environment for risk assets may remain favorable in 2021. Don’t get complacent though; after the S&P 500 Index rallied more than 70% since the March 2020 lows, some volatility would be perfectly warranted. Remember, they say that the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet people run out of the store screaming. Have a plan in place to be ready to take advantage when the sales come, and don’t run out screaming.

Stay healthy and please contact me with any questions.


Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice and financial planning offered through Financial Advocates Investment Management DBA Kimball Creek Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. Financial Advocates Investment Management, Kimball Creek Partners and LPL Financial are separate entities.

Please remember to contact Financial Advocates Investment Management and Kimball Creek Partners in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services, or if you wish to direct that Financial Advocates Investment Management, and Kimball Creek Partners effect any specific transactions for your account. Please be advised that there can be no assurance that any email request will be reviewed and/or acted upon on the day it is received – please be guided accordingly. Trading instructions sent by email will NOT be honored. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message.

Bringing an End to The Highly Contested 2020 Election

Dear Kimball Creek Partners and Friends:

Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States, defeating President Donald Trump in a tight race and bringing an end to the highly contested 2020 election. The new president-elect benefited from high voter turnout and solid support among independent and suburban voters. At the same time, Trump kept the race close, which likely helped put Republicans in a strong position to keep narrow control of the Senate. With the presidential election behind us, we can continue battling COVID-19, healing our economy, and bridging our divides as a society.

President-elect Biden will inherit an economy that is improving nicely. Based on gross domestic product, the US economy grew by a record 33% annualized in the third quarter as the economy reopened (Bureau of Economic Analysis), likely bringing the US recession—one of the shortest ever—to an end.

The strength of the US consumer has been a key driver of this recovery, with retail sales already eclipsing their pre-pandemic highs. But it’s not just the consumer driving the rebound. Manufacturing activity has been on the upswing; investment in technology equipment has surged; most housing markets across the country are booming; company results during third quarter earnings season have been much better than expected; and S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to increase significantly in 2021—potentially by more than 20% (FactSet).

Meanwhile, COVID-19 remains a threat as cases and hospitalizations continue to rise. Although the numbers may go higher in the short run, cases are skewing younger and treatments have improved significantly, greatly improving patient outcomes. While widespread shutdowns are unlikely, renewed restrictions in Europe in response to its latest outbreak provide a reminder that this battle is not yet over. Safe and effective vaccines may be identified within the next month or two and become widely available sometime in mid- to late-2021.

Turning to policy, negotiating a stimulus package with Senate Republicans to help fortify the economic bridge to a COVID-19 vaccine likely will be among the first priorities after inauguration day, though a smaller package in the lame duck session of Congress may be possible. With Republicans potentially in control of the Senate, Biden then may turn to scaled-down versions of his key spending priorities—including renewable energy, infrastructure, and healthcare—as major tax increases may be off the table.

While political change may cause market volatility, US political and economic systems are resilient and can, after a period of adjustment, adapt to new realities. Most of our investment horizons extend far beyond this election and any political cycle. Now that the election is over, the focus continues to be on providing independent investment advice and helping you stick to your long-term investment strategies. The commitment to you will not change, regardless of who is in office.


Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of November 5, 2020.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice and financial planning offered through Financial Advocates Investment Management DBA Kimball Creek Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. Financial Advocates Investment Management, Kimball Creek Partners and LPL Financial are separate entities.

Please remember to contact Financial Advocates Investment Management and Kimball Creek Partners in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services, or if you wish to direct that Financial Advocates Investment Management, and Kimball Creek Partners effect any specific transactions for your account. Please be advised that there can be no assurance that any email request will be reviewed and/or acted upon on the day it is received – please be guided accordingly. Trading instructions sent by email will NOT be honored. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message.

Life is trying to get back to as normal despite the ongoing impact from COVID19

Autumn has arrived, with students back in school, baseball playoffs beginning, and football in full swing. Life is trying to get back to as normal as possible despite the ongoing impact from COVID19. While the number of new daily cases and hospitalizations from COVID-19 has steadied in the United States, cases in Western Europe are increasing again, and many are concerned the United States could follow Europe with another spike higher.

Although there are still reasons to worry, a number of positives are on the horizon. A major vaccine breakthrough possibly could be here by the end of the year. The US government has plans to ship 100 million Abbott Labs 15-minute COVID-19 tests over the next several weeks to help accelerate reopening of the economy. Meanwhile, Pfizer’s clinical trial is expected to produce conclusive results later this month, with Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorization potentially coming soon thereafter. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine is in the final stages of testing, and promising vaccines from AstraZeneca and Moderna are in the pipeline as well. All of these point to the potential for an improving global economy in 2021.

In another sign of strength, the S&P 500 Index rallied 60% off its March 23 bottom through early September, although it has pulled back some over the past several weeks. After such a strong rally, a 10% correction is perfectly normal and to be expected. Add to this seasonal weakness — the historically poor stock market performance typical of September and October—and investors’ pre-election jitters, and this pullback could be viewed as an opportunity for suitable investors to consider adding to longer-term holdings.

Technology stocks have shown strength during the pandemic, but this group also has pulled back lately, causing many to claim this might be another “tech bubble” similar to the late 1990s. This seems unlikely, as the technology sector has experienced explosive growth, with tech earnings estimates above their pre-pandemic levels, justifying the valuations.

While the economy is showing signs of improvement, it also continues to reflect areas of concern. Initial jobless claims have remained stubbornly high. Dave and Buster’s reported revenue in the second quarter was down 85%, and Live Nation’s revenue was down 98%, as no one was seeing live shows. On the other hand, existing and new home sales both recently hit 14-year highs, and manufacturing has increased for four consecutive months, suggesting the recession is likely over.  Amazon has announced it will hire 33,000 new employees at an average salary of $150,000.

Certain industries may be years away from fully recovering, while others are moving along like nothing is wrong.

The contrasts in Washington are evident as well, with the presidential election only one month away, but all isn’t lost. There’s growing optimism that a new coronavirus relief package may still be possible before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve also is doing what it can to help spur confidence and liquidity in the markets. November’s winner will inherit an improving economy and one that will likely see strong growth in 2021, as multiple vaccines and therapeutics help spur the economy to open up more fully.
These signs of market and economic strength tell us that better times likely are coming in 2021.

Stay safe these final months of what’s been a very challenging year. And please contact me if you have any questions.


Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of September 30, 2020.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice and financial planning offered through Financial Advocates Investment Management DBA Kimball Creek Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. Financial Advocates Investment Management, Kimball Creek Partners and LPL Financial are separate entities.

Please remember to contact Financial Advocates Investment Management and Kimball Creek Partners in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services, or if you wish to direct that Financial Advocates Investment Management, and Kimball Creek Partners effect any specific
transactions for your account. Please be advised that there can be no assurance that any email request will be reviewed and/or acted upon on the day it is received – please be guided accordingly. Trading instructions sent by email will NOT be honored. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.

Back to school this year will be different

Dear Kimball Creek Partners and Friends:

Back to school this year will be different. On the one hand, like other years, it marks the end of summer, the arrival of cooler weather, kids hitting the books again, and Labor Day gatherings. But unlike other years, going back to school carries unique concerns because of COVID-19. This year, we’re all getting an education in remote learning, working from home, and social distancing.

While the COVID-19 fight is not over, more progress has been made recently. New cases and hospitalizations in the United States have been falling steadily since mid-July. Several promising vaccine candidates have entered phase-three trials in the United States, and the FDA could potentially fast-track approval for emergency use later this year. Abbott Laboratories has developed a $5 COVID-19 test that the company claims can produce reliable results in only 15 minutes. The fruition of pandemic developments may be getting us closer to the end of the pandemic.

The stock market has responded to these promising developments with fresh record highs for the S&P 500 Index and its strongest August performance since 1984. Stocks have also received a boost from surprisingly strong recent economic data, which already may have brought an end to the “lockdown recession.”

The brightening economic picture helped second quarter corporate earnings beat estimates by an average of 23%, more than in any quarter since FactSet began tracking earnings statistics in 2008. Estimates have risen to the point where analysts expect 2021 S&P 500 earnings to surpass the 2019 level.

But even if the recession may be over technically, the path forward may be challenging. MGM, American Airlines, Coca-Cola, and other major corporations recently announced thousands of layoffs. If lawmakers can’t agree on another stimulus package soon, the road ahead will get tougher.

Now that the Democratic and Republican national conventions are behind us, election season is in full swing—and with that comes the potential for increased market volatility. September historically has been the weakest month for S&P 500 stock performance, but during election years, it switches to October, when policy anxiety typically peaks. With stocks pricing in significant optimism after such a strong rally from the March lows and these seasonal headwinds on the way, the potential for a pullback may be high.

At the same time, it’s possible we’re in the beginning stages of a new bull market, which suggests additional gains for stocks may be forthcoming. That’s why it probably makes sense for suitable investors to be patient, stick with their target allocations—particularly those with multiyear time horizons—and resist the urge to get more defensive. Stocks appear to be expensive, but so do bonds. Even though stock market volatility may increase and stock returns potentially may fall below long-term averages, stocks may continue to outperform bonds over the next 12 months.

Good luck with the transition back to school, to a new season, and to the new norms—and stay safe.

As always, please contact me with questions.


Important Information

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All data is provided as of September 3, 2020.

Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.

All index data from FactSet.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice and financial planning offered through Financial Advocates Investment Management DBA Kimball Creek Partners, a Registered Investment Advisor. Financial Advocates Investment Management, Kimball Creek Partners and LPL Financial are separate entities.

Please remember to contact Financial Advocates Investment Management and Kimball Creek Partners in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services, or if you wish to direct that Financial Advocates Investment Management, and Kimball Creek Partners effect any specific
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